Managing robots with hedge funds is more reliable than imagining

On the morning of the Brexit day on June 24, Yoshinori Nomura wanted to cry because the market situation was completely opposite him. More precisely, it is against the program developed by the hedge fund manager. On the eve of the market trend, the program sold Japanese stock index futures. Nomura expected this to happen, but decided not to intervene in the decision.

Then in a flash, the situation reversed. When the vote showed that the UK will leave the European Union, the Japanese stock market ushered in the biggest decline in five years. Nomura's Simplex Futures Strategy Fund's yield on the day reached 3.4%, the best result in three months.

"The machine is right." Nomura said later. He spent more than three years refining the trading process and now manages about $35 million in funds, and is one of the first funds in Japan to use AI (Artificial Intelligence) technology. He holds a master's degree in physics and has three patents, including an algorithm for predicting Japanese pop songs.

The impact of Brexit on the Japanese stock market

Nomura is not as famous as Renaissance Technologies and Two Sigma Investments, which also use AI technology, but the physics enthusiast has proven his way of managing wealth in the future. If he succeeds in Japan, the fading AI technology may be successful globally, because the Bank of Japan's stimulus measures confuse the market, hedge funds are always dragging their backs, and institutional investors are also known to avoid risk.

Nomura, 43 years old, has placed his program in the most chaotic market in the world. The stock volatility ranks first among the major exchanges. The Dongzheng Index replied 10% last year, but has fallen 16% this year. . This kind of volatility is bad for hedge funds. Japan's EurekahedgePte hedge fund index fell 3.5% this year, but the global range rose 2.6%, which is the worst performance since the Japanese financial crisis.

In this case, it is very difficult to advance Nomura's strategy, especially without precedent. Some institutional customers are particularly skeptical about this unfamiliar product, and even require the word AI not in the promotional materials. There are very few AI funds around the world, and those who use machine learning techniques early need to prove themselves with achievements, so that investors will take it seriously.

It is also difficult to distinguish between AI funds and more general “quantitative” investments. Both allow the computer to make an investment decision, but the AI ​​program goes further than the quantitative software, which promotes itself in the transaction, mimicking the learning ability of the human brain.

Nomura's strategy seems to integrate quantitative analysis and AI. The Simplex Fund, like many of its peers, uses a lot of data to answer a simple question: buy or sell. The program makes two decisions every day to buy or sell the Dongzheng Index futures, and the position size is controlled at 50% of the fund's assets.

AI hedge fund performance

If the program is designed, its predictive power will increase over time. Although it is difficult to draw conclusions from the months of trading, the early results are still exciting. Since the program was used in April, the Nomura Fund's yield has reached 1.9%, and the expected annual rate of return is 7%. The global hedge funds that rely on AI seem to have done a good job, with 12 funds earning 7% this year.

This may also explain why some well-known institutions are adopting AI technology. For example, Point72 set up a fund in March to invest in AI. While it is challenging to promote strategies that are unfamiliar to others, Nomura predicts that the size of the managed funds will double at the end of the year, attracting the attention of some regional banks and insurance companies. Machines will become more and more intelligent, and investment methods will change sooner or later.

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