A few days ago, NASDAQ index stocks LED epitaxial / die factory Xu Ming Optoelectronics (SemiLEDS) forecast that this quarter's profit will plummet, resulting in a sharp fall in stock prices. Yesterday (January 18th), LED manufacturer Cree also plunged 15% after the market due to the ugly financial report. Even the stock price of Rubicon, the LED upstream material sapphire substrate factory, also weakened.
According to the analysis, mainly due to the recent market miscellaneous audio transmission, including LED lighting demand growth rate is not as expected, coupled with TV TV and other large-size backlight demand has not significantly rebounded, and LED from die to package prices continue to fall, so that the recent LED market The situation is dark and the chaos is unclear, and LED supply chain manufacturers are being tested in the short term.
Although the trend of energy-saving lighting is clear, in the short-term, energy-saving lighting supply chain manufacturers (including LED manufacturers) may face a wave of supply and demand adjustment, product price drop in order to stimulate the use of the penetration rate of the pain adjustment period, to shuffle. At present, Taiwan's LED epitaxial wafer manufacturers are still optimistic about the fact that the product technology is more advanced, the production capacity is larger, and the layout of the seaport is more diverse.
In terms of price, according to the latest survey, in the fourth quarter of 2010, LEDs are used for large-size backlights or lighting, and the price from die to package is continuously falling. The price of backlight LEDs is about 10%. The price of LED chips for lighting varies according to the brightness specifications. The 80-90 lumens (lm) has a large drop, but the products with a brightness of 100 lumens or more are still relatively high in supply. As for lighting packaging products, after falling 10%-15% in the fourth quarter, it is expected that there will be more than 10% decline in the first quarter of 2011.
Although the upstream sapphire substrate has been frequently increased in the past few quarters, with the decline in LED die and packaging, the overall supply chain to terminal demand has indeed appeared to wait for price stagnation. Recently, the price of sapphire substrates has also loosened.
The main reason is that recently LED manufacturers are scrambling to develop more packaging solutions, resulting in a large increase in the supply of LED packaging products for lighting. However, due to the high price of the retail price of the overall LED lighting products, compared with the traditional energy-saving light source, the terminal LED lighting The growth rate of demand has not fully kept pace with manufacturers. It is generally expected that the price of LED lighting products from the die, to the package, to the module, to the system lamp end will be significantly reduced in 2011, in order to effectively stimulate the LED lighting penetration rate to increase to more than 10% in 2011.
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