"We often overestimate the changes that will happen in the next couple of years and underestimate the transformations that will unfold over the next decade," Bill Gates wrote in his book *The Road to the Future*. It feels like autonomous driving is still somewhat distant, yet major automotive companies are quietly setting the stage behind closed doors.
A key milestone for self-driving cars was supposed to be 2020, with many automakers promising to release fully autonomous vehicles—essentially driverless—around this time. Quoting Gates’ perspective: don’t get overly hopeful just yet. While overcoming technological challenges is a significant hurdle, achieving full autonomy also requires a comprehensive societal system. However, looking ahead a decade, the changes on our roads will likely surpass what we can currently imagine.
To better understand the plans of various carmakers, let’s first review the official definitions of autonomous driving levels. Currently, most automakers follow the SAE classification system, dividing it into five categories: driver assistance, partial automation, conditional automation, high automation, and full automation.
Tesla immediately springs to mind when discussing autonomous driving.
When the V8.1 system supporting Autopilot 2.0 was launched several months ago, Tesla, under the SAE classification, was still considered to be at Level 2. Nevertheless, Tesla has already set its sights on Level 5 full automation.
Since March of this year, every model produced at the factory is guaranteed to come equipped with SAE Level 5 autonomous driving hardware. This includes 12 ultrasonic sensors and 8 cameras. The 8 cameras are designed to provide a 360-degree field of vision, with the ability to monitor the surrounding environment up to 250 meters away. The 12 ultrasonic sensors enhance the vision system, doubling the detection range for soft and hard objects compared to the previous generation.
Of course, these are just the current specifications for Tesla’s full automation hardware. Tesla has hinted that future hardware upgrades are inevitable.
At the WGS2017 conference, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that the company aims to roll out commercially viable SAE Level 4 autonomous driving technology by the end of the year. This aligns with Tesla’s dual focus on both autonomy and electrification: all new cars will come equipped with autonomous driving tech, though Musk acknowledges that achieving full autonomy will still take around 10 years. As for the complete phase-out of fossil-fueled vehicles, he estimates it will take roughly 20 years.
While Tesla leads the charge in innovation, other automakers are also actively developing their own strategies. For instance, General Motors has invested heavily in autonomous driving through its Cruise division, aiming for widespread adoption within the next few years. Meanwhile, traditional giants like Ford and Volkswagen are collaborating with tech firms to accelerate their own timelines.
As we move forward, it’s clear that autonomous driving represents a paradigm shift in transportation. The integration of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and advanced sensor technologies will undoubtedly push boundaries. Yet, as Gates noted, we may be overly optimistic about short-term progress while underestimating long-term potential. The journey toward full autonomy is far from over, but the race is well underway."
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