The PC market is becoming a "chicken rib" Who will be eliminated?

Is the PC market becoming a "chicken rib"?

In recent years, every release of industry data is telling the difficulty of the PC market. According to the latest data from market research firm Gartner, global PC sales in the third quarter of this year fell 7.7% year-on-year to 73.7 million units. The survey data of another agency IDC is even more pessimistic. This year, global PC shipments totaled 71 million units in the third quarter, down 10.8% year-on-year, which is more exaggerated than the previous forecast of 9.2% decline.

"I personally feel that the market challenges we face today may be as severe as in 2008," Yang Yuanqing, chairman and CEO of Lenovo Group, the world's largest PC manufacturer, told reporters.

Yes, the knockout has already begun. Among the top 10 PC manufacturers in the world, Acer, Asus, Toshiba, Samsung, Tsinghua Tongfang and Fujitsu are ranked lower. IDC analysts believe that two of them will be squeezed out of the market.

Apple and other

The only surprise brought by Gartner's research data is that Apple's performance is still better than the PC market as a whole in the global PC sales decline.

In fact, with 5.6 million Mac computers sold worldwide in the third quarter of this year, Apple has successfully ranked among the world's fourth-largest PC makers, accounting for 7.6% of the market, when sales of traditional PC makers fell and accidents occurred frequently.

However, although Apple's market share increased from 6.9% in the same period last year to 7.6%, this is the lowest sales growth rate of Apple Computer since the third quarter of 2013.

From the overall sales rankings, Lenovo's PC sales in the third quarter of this year was close to 15 million units, gaining a market share of 20.3%, and once again becoming the PC sales champion, but still down 4% year-on-year. Similarly, HP PC sales in the third quarter fell 4% to 13.7 million units, with a market share of 18.5%.

In addition to Apple, Dell, ranked third in the third quarter, was the only vendor with the largest market share among the top six PC makers, and sales of 10.2 million units increased Dell's market share by 0.5 percentage points.

The top six PC sales in the world are Acer and Asus, which are 5.5 million and 5.2 million respectively. Among them, Acer and Asus have a market share of 7.4% and 7.1% respectively. It is worth noting that compared with the same period last year, Acer And ASUS PC sales plummeted by 19.9% ​​and 10.1%, respectively.

Behind this, the most straightforward conclusion is that Windows 10, which once let users re-visit hopes in the sluggish PC market, did not want to rekindle PC sales this time.

In addition, Apple's counterattacks have caused the industry's most sensation to drive the growth of consumer electronics products. Nowadays, the design, functions and experience seem to be pushed to the same important position.

Therefore, the problem left to traditional PC manufacturers is still how to find a balance in product design, function, experience and so on.

Self-help

At a time when the mobile Internet is popular, traditional PC makers are busy facing consumers with a newer face. But for business operators, such a transformation process often requires painstaking determination.

As a result, the news of cutting meat layoffs has recently sent these PC companies headlines.

Hewlett-Packard (HP) was one of the founders of Silicon Valley mythology, but was laughed at as "Help, please" during the transition. In the context of the transformation of the IT industry, HP is faced with the dilemma of the consumer market "can not keep" and the enterprise market "can not attack." The strategy of both the consumer market and the enterprise market can be said to be robust, but it cannot bring subversive innovation to HP.

There seems to be no other better way than layoffs and spin-offs.

A month ago, Hewlett-Packard announced the spin-off plan, which is divided into two by the existing HP, two independent companies "Hewlett-Packard Enterprise" and "HPInc" (HPInc), the former will focus on At present, the growth is favored by the enterprise technology infrastructure business, software business and service business; the latter will be the main PC and printer business.

The move shows that under the continual decline of personal PC business, HP has shifted its strategic focus to providing hardware, software and services to large enterprises, namely enterprise-level IT.

After the layoffs of 10,000 people, Sony also reluctantly changed the VAIO brand at the beginning of last year, while LG also gave up the PC business.

In fact, when the sound of the smashing PC industry reached its peak, Yang Yuanqing, the chairman and CEO of Lenovo Group, the world's largest PC manufacturer, wanted to use performance proof. Even if the overall market is not good enough, a single manufacturer can still do better. . But it is obvious that the growth engine of this PC manufacturer has switched to businesses such as smartphones.

Although Lenovo started PC+ transformation in 2013 and launched the PC+ mobile strategy, even Yang Yuanqing has to admit that “this is Lenovo’s most difficult dilemma”.

In the quarter ended June 30, 2015, Lenovo Group’s turnover was $10.7 billion, up 3% year-on-year, but net profit fell 51% year-on-year to $105 million.

“I personally feel that the market challenges we face today may be as serious as in 2008. In 2008, the PC market continued to grow. At that time, the main (down) was the enterprise (business), and the consumer market was still healthy. But at that time, Lenovo lacked a consumer business outside China, so we were hit hard.” Yang Yuanqing said in an interview that this time Lenovo was affected by both sides. On the one hand, the core business was hit, on the other hand, it was new. The entering business has not yet established a firm foothold and has encountered even greater challenges.

According to Lenovo's financial report, Lenovo's personal computer group (PCG, including personal computers and Windows tablets) ranked first in the global market for the ninth consecutive quarter. Although the quarterly turnover reached $7.3 billion and the pre-tax profit reached $368 million, it fell by 8% year-on-year. Among them, Lenovo's personal computer sales in the quarter was 13.5 million, down 7.1% year-on-year, while the overall market fell 12.8%.

Who will be eliminated

Compared with Lenovo, in the past year or so, Dell in the Chinese market, like a local company, painted walls in county towns and towns, used otaku idols to attract gamers and shorten the turnover rate of dealers. A foreign company, but it is really trying to sell PCs.

In Dell's view, the sunset is often not as short as imagined. China is a market that sells more than 60 million PCs a year. This is not to say that it can be abandoned if abandoned.

Intel also opened a mobilization meeting for PC products for China's "Double Eleven" E-Commerce Festival.

In order to improve persuasiveness, Intel moved out of the old notebook five years ago and the notebook with the sixth-generation Core processor. The latter performance is 2.5 times that of the former, the battery life is 3 times, and the wake-up speed is even more. It has been improved by 4 times, and there are many new features such as voice assistant, face recognition, and faster lightning interface. In short, I hope to list good reasons to replace the old PC in the hands of consumers.

In addition, just recently, several giants of the PC era have also participated, and the unprecedented "PC" platform.

Intel and Microsoft announced that they will jointly launch an advertising campaign with the slogan "PC Does What?" in collaboration with HP, Dell and Lenovo. They hope that potential computer buyers will fully realize that modern PCs can do it. All things.

It is a pity that today's market is not reserved for the traditional PC manufacturers ranked lower.

"The current PC life cycle is about 4.5 to 5 years." IDC analyst Tom Mainelli pointed out that as PC sales shrink, the entire market is concentrating on the four major PC vendors.

The four major manufacturers are Lenovo, HP, Dell and Apple. Therefore, among the current 5 to 10 vendors, it is likely that two will exit the market. The current 5 to 10 manufacturers are Acer, Asus, Toshiba, Samsung, Tongfang and Fujitsu.

The reason for this expectation, IDC said that this is because the rise of mobile computing and cloud computing will not be conducive to the development of the PC market, in the transformation of the market to the "third platform technology", some companies will become victims. Such technologies include cloud computing services, big data and data analytics, mobile computing, and social networking.

According to the above analysts' forecast, by 2020, these PC-based companies may be acquired, merged, gradually shrinked, or transformed.

In Yang Yuanqing's view, the PC industry does not need so many players or competitors after maturity, and there will be some competitive losers in this industry.

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