Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Deepening the 2018 Special Action for Speeding up the Network to Speed ​​Up and Reduce Expenses and Accelerating the New Development of Economic Development," and demanded that the development of 5G industry technology be accelerated.
By investing in the 5G industry at the national level, it will have a certain impetus to the entire communications industry. In the medium and long term, after the 5G network is rolled out, the technology and market characteristics of 5G will be destined to allow three operators to enter homogenous services and low-cost competition, which will further reduce the profits of downstream companies in the entire industry. It may even trigger the closure and transformation of some communication companies.
From four aspects, we can see the impact on operators and their downstream industries after the 5G network is rolled out.
First, the operator's revenue is close to the ceiling: From China Mobile's 2017 financial report, which accounts for 70% of mobile phone users, China Mobile's 4G user penetration rate is close to 70%, which is close to the 2G user ceiling, and the APPU value. The average revenue per user growth rate is between ±5% in recent years, mainly because user data traffic usage has increased five-fold since 2015, and the usage per user traffic has reached 54%, while voice The use has dropped to 25%, and the traffic charges have been impacted by unlimited packages such as Unicom's “ice creamâ€. The traffic of the three mobile operators is in the future. Simply put, the number of mobile users will increase to the ceiling in the future, and the ARRU value will remain the same or will decrease. That is to say, in the 5G era, the future revenue growth of operators is basically weak.
Second, 5G technology will reduce investment costs: From the perspective of 5G network technology, 3GPP (5G protocol development organization) will stipulate that the future 5G network will be a network first, and there will be no more 2G-4G multiple protocols. In the case of coexistence, and due to advances in technology, the number of vertical nodes of the network is compressed, that is, the equipment and engineering maintenance of the future 5G construction will be reduced. According to Japan's NTT Docomo estimates, the future 5G will reduce the operator's investment cost to 50% in the 4G era through new technologies, which will greatly affect the number of orders and revenues of equipment manufacturers and service providers downstream of operators in the future.
Third, 5G terminal single system will compress the mobile terminal market: 5G terminals will be unified only one standard, mobile phone users will not need to distinguish mobile phones according to different operators, for example, you do not need to consult the clerk to buy iPhone 5G mobile phone Whether this mobile phone supports mobile, telecom or Unicom. According to the China Information and Communication Research Institute's "Domestic Mobile Market Operation Analysis Report", as of the first quarter of 2018, China's mobile phone sales have been continuously negatively increased for 13 months, and sales in March 2018 fell by 27%. From the sales of mobile phones, the user's saturation can be fully explained. If the future 5G is unified, it will only further reduce the market size of the entire mobile phone sales.
Fourth, the future operators will lose the user's binding rights: after 5G, the operator will vigorously promote the esim card (embedded sim card), the mobile phone purchased by the user will be directly embedded in the sim card, and the user only needs to pass the software according to his own needs. Just choose an operator. Such seemingly small technical changes will actually change the business model of the entire communication carrier. Individual users will no longer be tied up by a single operator. It is conceivable that future mobile phones or APP portals will hijack users' choice of operators. Power, the user may not be aware of the situation, the mobile phone and APP will automatically help the user to select the carrier network with the lowest network tariff and better signal. The advantage of China Mobile's broad coverage to attract users will be weakened. If China Mobile can't converge the price with the other two, future users will most likely use the low-cost carrier network (or wifi) in a fixed location most of the time, and will only choose to move when the signal is not good for part of the time. Therefore, in the future 5G era, the three operators can only compete on the homogenized low-cost network, thereby further reducing profits.
Compared with the US telecommunications carrier market, the United States is now entering the era of operator oligopoly. The profit margins of the three largest operators, Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile, have gradually converge in recent years, and the EBITDA rate is up to 25% from 2014. By 2017, the maximum difference is less than 10%. Like China, the three operators have gradually introduced unlimited packages. According to the estimates of US carriers, after entering 5G, the profit margins of the three Chinese operators will further increase. Convergence will also further reduce investment in network construction.
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