According to foreign media reports, the well-known market research company Analysys Mason predicts that 4G networks based on long-term evolution (LTE) technology will be put into commercial use in 2013, but within the first 12 months of its introduction, its economic benefits are limited. This is one of the company's predictions for the telecommunications industry in the coming year. Other predictions include that Apple's share of the global tablet market will fall below 50%.
The 4G era is coming
Analysys Mason predicts that some European countries, emerging markets in Latin America and Southeast Asian countries participating in the Asia-Pacific band plan will launch 4G networks. Some developed markets, such as South Korea, will also begin to deploy LTE networks and use their functions, such as carrier aggregation, to create more powerful channels for providing faster services.
However, in countries and regions where LTE services are positioned as high-fee products and the economy is still weak (Italy and Spain), their direct economic impact will be very limited.
The industry will also realize that consumers are reluctant to pay extra for LTE mobile broadband. In view of this, such services will not be able to compete with the next generation of fixed-line products and services, and can only serve as a complementary basis. This impact will lower the charges for 3G / HSPA mobile broadband services.
2G network will be shut down
It is expected that in 2013, more and more operators will focus on the “large-scale shutdown†of 2G networks, involving the traditional mobile infrastructure of mobile network operators, wired networks, and public telephone exchange networks of fixed network operators. The progress of this initiative varies greatly from region to region. For example, an operator in South Korea has shut down its 2G network.
New competition situation-social media and mobile phone text messages
In 2012, the way operators responded to SMS competition was to launch RCS-e, followed by some "telecom operator OTT" services. In the next 12 months, as social media giants (such as Facebook) join the battle, market competition will further heat up.
AnalysysMason predicts that European operators' information services revenue will drop to 34% in the next four years, from 28 billion euros in 2011 to 18.6 billion euros in 2017.
LTE voice service
The first LTE voice service (VoLTE) came out in 2012. Although there is still a long way to go from a wide range of commercial deployments, operators still have to make difficult choices regarding the future development of their voice services.
Awareness of cost savings is driving an increase in information management system (IMS) investment cases, but the impact of revenue is still uncertain, and how voice services should evolve in the LTE environment remains to be clarified. HTML5 / WebRTC will further stimulate the debate about whether the voice service is just an application.
The growth rate of smartphone popularity slows down
The smartphone market will continue to grow, but its growth rate will be significantly slower than in previous years. Annual global smartphone shipments will increase from 691 million in 2012 to 869 million in 2013. However, the growth rate of new smartphone connections will decrease significantly: from 39% in 2011 to 29% in 2012. This growth rate will drop further to 20% in 2013.
AnalysysMason predicts that the market share of smartphone operating systems will continue to evolve. It is estimated that in the next 12 months, the global smartphone sales share of Android and iOS will increase slightly (Android: from 56.4% to 58.1%, iOS: from 21.5% to 22%). However, Saipan's market share will fall from 5.9% to 2.7%, and will fall to 0 in 2016.
Apple ’s tablet market share will fall below 50%
As the tablet market continues to grow, Apple ’s dominance will continue to decline, and its speed exceeds many people ’s expectations.
It is expected that by the end of 2013, Apple ’s tablet market share will drop to below 50%, of which iPadmini has a limited effect on sales growth-due to its high price ($ 329, which is much higher than the KindleFireHD $ 200 level) ). In 2011-2012, Apple and Samsung's market share both showed a downward trend, while other beneficiary suppliers include HTC, Motorola, RIM and Sony.
The tablet content market will be a key differentiating factor and important feature (such as quality, screen size or processing power) in 2013. Suppliers focused on expanding their content and international business will most likely attract non-Apple tablet users.
Multi-device service package
In the past five years, the sales prices of smartphones and tablets have been declining: the average selling price of smartphones has fallen by 300 euros since 2007. This trend has promoted the increase of data penetration rate and the emergence of multi-device user layer, prompting more operators to launch multi-device service package plans to obtain additional income.
This situation is most evident in the LTE service plan, where the charge per GB varies greatly, ranging between $ 14-85.
Traditional TV is facing greater pressure
OTT / connected TV and non-linear TV will continue to force broadcasters / pay TV and telecom operators to reconsider their strategic positioning. In terms of the use of paid TV OTT video services, the number of household users in the United States and Canada will more than double between 2012 and 2017 to 53.1 million, accounting for 37.4% of the total number of households.
European households using OTT video services are expected to reach 2.3 million in 2012, accounting for only 0.7% of total households. We expect this number to increase to 32.2 million in 2017, or 10% of all households. Compared with the United States and Canada, growth in this area in Europe will continue to be constrained by users ’low willingness to use paid video—because public broadcasters provide a large amount of high-quality free content.
Wi-Fi becomes a savior
The small cell / service provider ’s Wi-Fi solution will meet the mobile operator ’s demand for dense urban wireless network coverage and capacity, but existing backhaul capabilities are limited, standard maturity, and solution cost will hinder Major deployment work will not improve until the end of 2013 or early 2014.
LTE will be an important choice for obtaining network and device support for small cell spectrum, thereby meeting the capacity needs of operators in developed markets, supplemented by increasing 5GHz wireless network connections to provide better Wi-Fi performance.
Based on HotSpot2.0 and equipment that supports Passpoint2.0, service provider Wi-Fi solutions will enter the market by the end of 2013, helping to bridge the gap between cellular networks and emerging "carrier-grade" Wi-Fi services.
Operators will also begin to provide different levels of service: cellular, service provider wireless network connections and "maximum rate" wireless network connections, intended to help them differentiate their services and brands, and provide support for monetizing their wireless experience.
Telecom operators in emerging markets are maturing
Changing processes, operating costs, and network cost optimization will become the main problems facing operators in emerging markets, because operators in these regions are maturing, and the ever-increasing mobile phone penetration rate has finally begun to slow down. In some African and Middle Eastern countries (for example, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates), the penetration rate of active SIM cards has exceeded 100% of the total population.
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